Energy woes deepen as Trump team looks to soften blow
· Axios
Oil and gasoline prices are marching upward again Friday, even as Trump administration officials seek ways to get more barrels into the market.
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Why it matters: Ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz and military threats to regional infrastructure are together shocking oil and natural gas markets.
- "There's no doubt that what's happening now is an order of magnitude bigger — in terms of potential fallout for oil markets — than Russia's invasion of Ukraine," writes Robin Brooks, a Brookings Institution economist.
The big picture: The global benchmark Brent crude is trading around $88 Friday morning, up roughly $16 since military strikes against Iran began.
- And don't forget that prices had already jumped in anticipation of the strikes, so the true rise attributable to the conflict is even higher.
- U.S. average regular gasoline prices are up 32 cents per gallon this week to $3.32, per AAA.
Stunning stat: The national average gasoline price is up 10.8% over the past four days, the largest spike since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, per Schwab analyst Kevin Gordon.
The latest: The Trump administration is making various moves to temper the shock.
- The Treasury Department on Thursday night announced a 30-day sanctions waiver to enable Indian refiners to buy more Russian oil.
- "This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea," Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X.
- Still, some analysts call the move a win for Russia.
What they're saying: "While this might help put some immediate downward pressure on the market, it is not a game-changer," ING analysts said in a note.
- "The only way for prices to come down on a sustained basis is a resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz," it adds.
What we're watching: Other triage efforts.
- "Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is increasing shipments from the Red Sea, but the volumes are far from enough to offset the drop from the crisis-hit Strait of Hormuz," Reuters reports Friday morning.