Calls grow for Strait of Hormuz ship escorts as Iran escalates attacks
· Axios
There's "growing momentum to establish a naval protection system" in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran's military escalates attacks on commercial ships, Eurasia Group says.
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The big picture: U.S. Central Command warned "the Iranian regime is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz to conduct military operations that threaten international shipping" and put lives at risk.
- Officials reported at least five cargo vessels were hit in the region Wednesday.
- At least four seafarers have been killed after two missiles struck a UAE-flagged tugboat that was last week trying to help an stranded container ship north of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz, officials said.
State of play: Nations are scrambling to get barrels moving.
- Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm, said in a note Wednesday that traffic through the Strait that typically handles about 20% of the world's oil supply "remains near zero because of threats by Iran to attack any passing vessels."
- The U.S. military on Tuesday destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying naval vessels amid concerns that Iran is preparing to deploy mines in the key waterway.
- Maritime expert Capt. Kees Buckens told Axios it's quite easy for Iran's military to "quickly send out speedboats with loaded with bombs and missiles to attack ships if they wanted to do that."
- Calls have been growing for commercial shipping vessels to be protected. When Energy Secretary Chris Wright's X account briefly and inaccurately stated Tuesday that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait, it pushed oil prices down during another day of volatile trading.
Zoom in: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed during a Tuesday briefing that the U.S. Navy "has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time."
- But she emphasized this was an option President Trump "has said he will absolutely utilize, if and when necessary, at the appropriate time."
- Eurasia Group pointed to an an assessment by the 47-nation naval partnership Joint Maritime Information Center that "maritime industry stakeholders should anticipate a deliberate and methodical plan focused on ensuring safe and secure vessel movements" when "conditions permit."
Yes, but: It's "likely this will take until the end of March, or perhaps even the beginning of April, to fully set up," according to the Eurasia Group.
By the numbers: About 20,000 seafarers are currently working on ships in the Persian Gulf, notes Buckens, of Manukau Institute of Technology's New Zealand Maritime School, who's previously sailed tankers through the Strait.
- It's normal for them to be away from home for four or five months, but now families are separated as "they're sitting in a war zone suddenly, and they can be shot at," said Buckens, an industry engagement and simulation manager at the school, in a phone interview.
What we're watching: Trump, Wright and other energy officials are "closely monitoring the situation, speaking with industry leaders, and having the U.S. military draw up additional options to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, including the potential for our Navy to escort tankers," a Department of Energy spokesperson said in a Tuesday email.
- Representatives for the Trump administration didn't immediately respond to Axios' request for comment on plans to escort commercial ships through the Strait.
Between the lines: Even with the guarantee of an escort from the U.S. Navy or a wider coalition, Buckens said he would still be hesitant to sail through the Strait until it were proven to be safe.
- It's not a very large area and it's "pretty easy to put sea mines in there because it's so close to the shoreline," said Buckens.
Go deeper: Trump will tap oil reserve as Iran war drives up gas prices