Couch: 3 quick takes on Michigan State women's basketball's NCAA tournament draw — which goes through Oklahoma
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1. The MSU women's NCAA tournament draw is a mixed bag, but unquestionable progress
I liked something that Robyn Fralick said about her team’s No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament, which begins this Friday for Michigan State in Norman, Oklahoma:
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“It’s this interesting dichotomy of disappointment, of how close we are to the 4 seed (and hosting the first two rounds), and yet real recognition and embracing of this (being) the best seed in the program in 10 years. And so that doesn't happen with a magic wand. That's been a lot of people choosing Michigan State, choosing to be part of a program, choosing to play in a really, really tough conference, night in and night out. So that's something that we have to pay attention to. I think you always have to have this dichotomy of pushing for what's next and also having appreciation for where you how far you've come.”
It was well said, because this tournament draw for the Spartans is a mixed bag. All season long, the goal was to earn a top 4 seed and host tournament games at Breslin Center. For most of the season, they were in position to do so. Until the end. And so now MSU will be on the court of No. 4 seed Oklahoma — facing No. 12-seed Colorado State on Friday and, if the Spartans win, likely tussling with the host Sooners on Sunday, with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
That’ll be a tough setting. But one that still gives MSU a better chance to survive and advance to a Sweet 16 — in Sacramento — than a year ago, when the Spartans played 2-seed N.C. State on the road in the second round. This is still the program’s best team since 2016. And that’s something.
This season lost a little of its juice down the stretch. But MSU did more than enough during the regular season to give itself a chance to reclaim that this coming weekend.
2. A first glance at Colorado State
Colorado State is making its first NCAA tournament appearance in 10 years. The Rams haven’t been a regularly relevant program in women’s college basketball since the late 1990s and early 2000s. But this year was coming. They were really good last season and just missed the tournament and now they’re 27-7 and the 70th-best team in women’s college basketball, according to HerHoopStats.com. In Big Ten terms, that’s nine spots below Indiana and 20 spots ahead of Purdue. To compare, MSU won at Indiana by 20 and won at Purdue by 21.
The Rams’ best results are a four-point win over Gonzaga and a two-point loss to Stanford, both of which are ranked around 50th. Colorado State averages the fewest turnovers in the sport, does not play with great pace, and gets back defensively, rather than going for offensive rebounds. In other words, this will be a matchup of contrasting styles. In the women’s game, the gap between a team like MSU and Colorado State is usually too much for an upset. We’ll see whether MSU can impose its style and disruptive will on the Rams.
3. Getting past the Sooners is no picnic, but not impossible
MSU is capable of beating No. 4-seed Oklahoma in the second round on Sunday. The Spartans have beaten or taken to the wire teams right around this level. This essentially is MSU’s level. Both teams were shellacked by UCLA. And MSU thumped their only other common opponent, Ole Miss, while the Sooners lost to the Rebels at home. Oklahoma finished the season 24-7, led by Aaliyah Chavez, who averages better than 18 points per game. The Sooners' best win was at home in overtime against No. 1-seed South Carolina, which sits at the top of this region.
Winning in a hostile environment with a Sweet 16 on the line is something this MSU program hasn’t done. Ever. The last MSU team that had a chance, as a 4 seed in 2016, had to go on the road to Mississippi State because Breslin had been rented out for the MHSAA high school basketball finals. That team fell just short. The 2009 team that upset 1-seed Duke to reach the Sweet 16 did so in East Lansing, under a different tournament format. MSU won on neutral courts during their other famed NCAA tournament runs.
So this is a challenge not yet conquered, and one that would certainly give this season back its juice.
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball's NCAA tournament draw goes through Oklahoma: 3 quick takes