Cantillo’s curveball not enough for Cleveland, M’s win 3-1
· Yahoo Sports
Despite the Mariners winning this afternoon’s game against the Guardians, the big story was a standout performance from Cleveland’s starter, Joey Cantillo, and his newfound love of the curveball. The curveball’s fallen out of fashion in MLB lately. Just 8.2% of the pitches this season have been big benders, the second-lowest since 2008, despite the general rise of the secondary pitch and fade of the fastball. But there are exceptions to every trend, and Cantillo has decided to zig where the league has zagged, and all that movement left the Mariners flummoxed.
Here’s a little chart of Cantillo’s curveball usage leading up to today’s game:
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Notice that big spike? That was Saturday’s game against the Astros, when he went eight innings, striking out nine against just one walk and one run allowed, on the back of a 45% curveball rate. Now here’s today’s game on that chart:
So on the one hand, you can forgive the Mariners for getting caught off guard. Prior to Saturday, Cantillo’s career high on the curveball was 33%, and he’d only pitched four games in which he used Uncle Charlie more than 30% of the time. The fact that the Mariners whiffed on the pitch more than half the time owes a lot to how dramatically Cantillo changed his game. I genuinely can’t remember the last time I saw a starting pitcher use his curve literally 50% of the time.
More troubling, though, was the Mariners’ inability to adjust. Even the second and third time through, they were still getting hammered by the 59-inch break. Take Dominic Canzone’s second at-bat. Cantillo threw five curveballs in a row, with Canzone whiffing twice and barely getting a piece of a third before finally giving Cantillo a sword on a fastball that Canzone obviously thought would be a curve. Seattle struck out on the curveball five times, with another four punchouts set up by it one way or another. The team only managed one hard hit off Cantillo’s curve, a 103-mph groundball off the bat of Julio Rodríguez, which ended the sixth and ended up being the final pitch Cantillo threw.
The Mariners did get to Cantillo once, a homecoming home run for Colt Emerson. In Colt’s first game in the ballpark he grew up coming to, he smashed a ball out of the park in front of all his friends and family. How did he do it? By laying off two curveballs and getting a changeup.
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Colt doesn’t show as much emotion on the field as Cole Young, and the game state made the home run less consequential. But don’t let any of that fool you. This was just as special for him as Cole’s was in Pittsburgh.
And despite getting pretty well manhandled by Cantillo, the Mariners were in a fine position when he left the game because Luis Castillo put up six excellent innings of his own. In one way, it was vintage Castillo, mixing in all his pitches, and even getting four whiffs and several weak ground balls off his formerly premier cambio. In another way, it was hardly the Castillo of old, with just ten whiffs and four strikeouts. Still, I’m happy to celebrate a Castillo that rolls through a lineup on soft contact. No muss and no fuss isn’t as sexy as taking another team’s lunch money, but we could use a little less muss and fuss after Seattle’s last couple weeks. It’s good enough for today’s Sun Hat Award anyway.
The Mariners were able to win the game in the final three innings thanks to taking advantage of Cleveland’s mistakes. As soon as Cantillo left the game, Tim Herrin walked the first two Mariners he saw, Cal Raleigh and Dominic Canzone. And after some bad BABIP luck over the past month or so, the Mariners got a little good luck with Travis Bazzana bobbling J.P. Crawford’s groundball, allowing Cal to score. In the next inning, the Guardians once again let a free baserunner score when Colt Emerson walked and was driven in by Julio.
Those three runs were enough today, despite it being the 12th game in a row that the Mariners have scored three runs or fewer, because unlike Cleveland, Seattle’s bullpen locked down their starter’s good outing. Jose A. Ferrer, Gabe Speier, and Andrés Muñoz retired all nine batters they faced. Connor Donovan points out that over his last two outings, Muñoz has faced six left-handed batters out of six possible batters faced and struck out five of them. And remember that chart of Cantillo’s curveball usage? Let’s look at another one to close this out. It shows Gabe Speier’s fastball velocity over each month of his career.
That spike at the very end is only going to move higher because he averaged 97 mph again today. I’ll have more to say about that next week.