UFC 329 Prime Picks: Why Max Holloway is the righteous favorite

Our strongest bet of UFC 329 isn't a long shot, as Max Holloway headlines Prime Picks. | 📷: Getty/UFC


We at Sherdog remain constantly active for major events, such as the regular in-depth “Shillan & Duffy” preview show and the “Sheehan Show” for all sorts of related matters including betting. With those official sources for picks handled, we would like to take the edge off here and get a bit lighter with our breakdowns.

Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor betting prediction and best UFC 329 plays

The industry of sports betting is exploding before our very eyes, with billions of dollars pumping in since legalization stateside. Oftentimes, those driving the lines are right on the money with their openings, valuations and analyses. Occasionally, they are way off, or otherwise merit some additional conversation. That is where we come in with this reinvigorated series of Prime Picks, where we hold hands and jump into the abyss that is the Ultimate Fighting Championship‘s blockbuster UFC 329 show on International Fight Week. Try it out.

Max Holloway (Anything Under -300)

At their stages in their respective careers, with the fight miles and life miles on each man, Holloway as the younger, less self-destructive individual of the two, should be a massive betting favorite heading into his UFC 329 headliner. This is not the Conor McGregor that beat the stuffing out of Eddie Alvarez back when the New England Patriots were mere months away from staging the comeback of all comebacks against the Atlanta Falcons at Super Bowl LI in early 2017. Let us, however, dismiss any notion that McGregor is not showing up on Saturday. He’ll be there with bells on.

Think of how your own life has changed this last year alone, and pan that magnifying glass over your last five years since that is how long since McGregor competed professionally. Then, add a heaping helping of McGregor-disclosed banned vitamins while off the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency testing list, and a few after-dinner delights to further alter his biochemistry. Imagine an athlete trying to come back to peak condition while also having exited his physical prime after a horrific leg injury, followed by international acclaim that put him in the “Road House” remake and wrapping with international ire for his post-curricular activities.

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That out of the way, this fight should not be happening. Per manager Audie Attar this week, the UFC has opened up its piggy bank to the Irishman in a way that has allegedly never been done before. Given that this rematch will be held in Nevada, we may never know the true salaries, but rumors of the Jon Jones-requested $30 million may have been ponied up for McGregor up front with pay-per-view points off the table. Whether out of desperation to have another star on display or because the other options to headliner IFW did not pan out, what this says is that the UFC will completely turn a blind eye to everything “Notorious” has notoriously done outside the cage. Not only that, but they are rewarding him for it by bringing him in and paying him an exorbitant salary coming off two losses with his most recent win back before the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite his failed bid for Irish presidency and being found civilly liable for sexual assault after medical professionals described Nikita Hand’s wounds of a severity they had never encountered before, we can only surmise one thing. “Money, so they say, is the root of all evil today,” croons David Gilmour in Pink Floyd’s iconic “Money.”

We do not have enough time or space to dive into every bad actor in the sport. That said, we would be remiss if we did not touch on Gable Steveson and his borderline-comical betting line of -2500 or higher against Elisha Ellison. What allegedly occurred with Steveson at the University of Minnesota was anything but comical. The fallout from that, most notably how Steveson’s team defended the charges, resulted in the state changing the law to remove a so-called “intoxication loophole.” Not good either. In terms of the actual X’s and O’s, c’mon. Does anyone see “Snack Panther” staging any notable resistance to the former Olympic gold medalist when the cage door closes? Other than fliers on his opponents, betting on Steveson for the foreseeable future appears to be a fool’s errand.

It can be extraordinarily difficult to even impossible to separate the art from the artist. McGregor went from a national hero to a pariah, and he did so making his own decisions and does not appear to have been truly held accountable for his litany of actions ranging from multiple bar fights to altercations outside of nightclubs and a laundry list so extensive that a judge called his record “noteworthy, to the say the least.”

As long as he does not try to get silly and put his hands down and carries his chin in the air to taunt his rival, this version of Holloway that put Justin Gaethje down in an all-time great knockout has the chops to do that and worse to a McGregor where we truly have no idea as to his shape. The likelihood that at the age of 37 after all that self-abuse and beyond that McGregor is legitimately better than ever seems slim to none, and slim just left town. Holloway by whatever he wants, and don’t be surprised if the bigger-bodied Hawaiian at 170 pounds mixes in offensive wrestling like he did against Yair Rodriguez.

“No time for love, Dr. Jones” (+240)

Holloway vs. McGregor lasts under 3.5 rounds (-200)

King Green vs. Terrance McKinney lasts under 1.5 rounds (-425)

Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov lasts under 2.5 rounds (-120)

Curbing an iconic line from “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom”—from the character whose name of “Short Round” is now quite pejorative even if the actor does not mind, and had a wonderful reunion with his beloved castmate decades later—what we are looking for in this UFC 329 three-piece is speed. Even though one of the men on the marquee is famous for claiming that precision tops power while timing is superior to that speed factor, we view a few of these matches as collision courses that could orchestrate symphonies of destruction. Does anyone think that McGregor, who always has his equalizing left hand that could blow up the favorite spot in the main event with one shot, can carry a Max Holloway-type of fight against Holloway himself? Forget about it. Either he sparks Holloway within two rounds, or the Hawaiian styles on him with combos that give him flashbacks to the first Nate Diaz match until the “Blessed Express” runs him over.

As for the de facto anchor of this parlay—in this context, we do not mean the final entry, but rather our most confident play—when is the last time that McKinney reached the second round in a match? 2023. In his 13-fight UFC tenure, how many times has “T. Wrecks” reached the over, as in fighting beyond the 2:30 mark of Round 2? Never. What makes you think that an increasingly chinny-but-revitalized 39-year-old Green will be the one to push him past that precipice? Given McKinney’s fighting style, flip a coin as to how that goes, but time is what matters most here and it’s running out.

This last one is a little tricky, given one of the combatant’s penchants for hard five-round fights. With Whittaker moving up once again to a new division in which he will yet again look amusingly undersized, it remains to be seen how his durability carries up in weight 20 more pounds. Luckily, when it comes to the betting line here, while Krylov may have calmed himself down slightly as he has matured over the years, he still presents as a glass cannon and puts his chin straight in the air for the taking. Whittaker could corral the wilder, larger man and set him up for one of his fall-to-the-side head kicks that no one can ever seem to see coming, and it would not be surprising in the slightest. On the other side, the man formerly known as “Al Capone” could use his significant size advantage to wrangle the Aussie to the mat and proceed to do mean things to him. Either way, judges can hopefully take the night off for this accumulator and we can end our night with padded wallets.

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