Carney Liberals cling to nine-point lead as byelections loom
· Toronto Sun
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OTTAWA — As voters in three federal ridings prepare for some late-summer byelections, the Mark Carney Liberals are maintaining their single-digit lead over the opposition Tories.
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And approval numbers for Carney continue to slip, just one point shy of his all-time lowest rating.
That’s according to Liaison Strategies’ weekly federal tracker poll, which put the Liberals at 44% support, just nine points ahead of the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives at 35%.
The federal NDP, led by Avi Lewis, continue in a distant third place, garnering only 11% of the vote — down one percentage point from the week previous.
“The Liberals are up one point, the Conservatives are unchanged, and the NDP is down one,” said Liaison’s David Valentin.
“It is not a dramatic shift, but it is another week where the Liberals are in the mid-40s and the Conservatives are stuck in the mid-30s.”
Byelections not expected to cause big shifts
On Sunday, the PMO announced byelections in three vacant federal ridings — Jonathan Wilkinson, a Trudeau-era cabinet minister who left office to become Canada’s ambassador to the European Union; Beaches—East York, formerly held by Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith, and Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, home to Conservative MP Richard Martel, who resigned his seat after being appointed to the Senate earlier this month.
“(Monday’s) numbers are not a reaction to those writs, but they do give us the national backdrop heading into those contests,” Valentin explained.
That backdrop, he said, is not one that favours the Conservatives.
“In Ontario, the Liberals lead 49% to 38% among decided and leaning voters. In Quebec, the Liberals are at 45%, the Bloc is at 23%, and the Conservatives are at 22%,” he said.
“In British Columbia, the Liberals are at 44%, the Conservatives are at 33%, and the NDP is at 21%. Those are provincial numbers, not riding forecasts, but all three byelections are happening in provinces where the Liberal brand is in a competitive or leading position.”
Carney’s approval rating slips
While over half of those polled think he’s doing a good job, Carney’s approval rating slipped this week — coming in at just one percentage point above his all-time worst numbers.
“Carney’s approval is 56%, with 35% disapproving and 9% not sure,” Valentin said.
“This is not his lowest number in the tracker — he has been at 55 before, but it is on the lower side of his recent range. Even so, he remains strongly above water at plus 21.”
In an Angus Reid poll also released Monday, less than half of Canadians say they’re confident Carney can hold his own against the Donald Trump White House — only 43% said they had faith he can reach a deal, down from 51% three months ago.
Fifty per cent said they had no confidence at all in Carney’s ability to make a deal with Trump.
As for Poilievre, his approval rating remains unchanged at 36%, with is unfavourability rating increasing by one to 51%.
“He has had better ratings than this, including a 39% favourable rating earlier this year and a 47% unfavourable rating in June, so this is not his best footing,” Valentin said.
“He remains familiar to voters, but still clearly net negative.”