Mecca Drone Attack: Houthi Advance Puts Saudi Oil Exports At Risk, Sparks Fresh Concerns Over India’s Energy Needs

· Free Press Journal

New Delhi: India has voiced concern over the drone attack near Mecca and expressed hope for early restoration of peace and stability in the region. Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal termed the incident "particularly concerning", considering the religious significance of the Saudi Arabian city.

"We are deeply concerned at the drone attack near Makkah (Mecca). India reiterates its condemnation of attacks on the sovereign territory of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and of actions that endanger civilian lives and infrastructure. The incident near Makkah is particularly concerning, given the special significance of the city to Muslims across the world," Jaiswal said in a statement.

The statement comes after Royal Saudi Air Defence Forces intercepted and destroyed a hostile drone launched by the Houthis before it entered the prohibited airspace area of Mecca on Tuesday.

The Houthis have denied Saudi Arabia’ claims that they were targeting Mecca. Houthi officials alleged that this is all part of a propaganda campaign carried out by the Kingdom. Hazem al-Assad, a high-ranking member from the Houthi movement, wrote on X.

Whether Saudi Arabia’s claims are true or not, major questions have been asked of the Kingdom’s seeming inability to nullify the Houthi attack on key cities in the Kingdom, thereby squeezing its ability to sell on the global market through the East-West pipeline. The 1,200 kilometre-long pipeline runs across the country from the Abqaiq processing complex located near the Gulf coast in the eastern province of the country to the port city of Yanbu overlooking the Red Sea.

Experts estimate that the pipeline has been pumping out 7 mn barrels a day, and the Houthi advance which has taken Perim Island, in the Bab el Mandeb Strait, means the Saudis may no longer be able to use the East-West pipeline to reach its Asia market.

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Energy expert Talmiz Ahmad believes the loss of the East-West pipeline will be a big blow not just for the Kingdom but also for India’s energy needs. “At Yanbu, Saudi Arabia was able to release oil and thereby export 70% of the oil it was permitted to sell under the OPEC+ agreement,” he said. “Now, Saudi supplies have fallen to their lowest level in the last 25 years. This is a very serious setback. The principal markets for Saudi oil are in Asia, and the oil normally goes through the Bab el-Mandeb. Therefore, even if some Saudi oil reaches Western markets through the Suez Canal, the principal markets in India, China, and other Asian countries are not being supplied.”

Ahmad believes India can ride out the shock in the short term with its buying of Russian oil and the other 40 countries it relies on for oil supplies, but there are serious concerns for the country’s energy needs in the middle to longer term if the crisis is not resolved. Experts say that the origin of the conflict began when the Saudis bombed the runway of an airport in Sanaa, preventing an Iranian plane carrying a Houthi delegation from landing. The attack “signalled to the Houthis that the ceasefire with Saudi Arabia had now been broken by the Saudis. So, they have begun their own attacks on various Saudi targets,” said Ambassador Ahmad, adding that the operation has been quite successful.

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The problem for Saudi Arabia is that its coalition forces to fight the Houthis is plagued by poor morale and lack of training. The Saudi led Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen is made up of the Presidential Leadership Council of Yemen PLC, — the internationally recognised government that replaced President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi in 2022, and other groups. But the PLC leadership has provided poor leadership and is disparagingly described as a "hotel leadership," given that they are residing in hotels in Riyadh and away from the fighting. This has sapped the morale of forces fighting. There also has been no initiative to train them given since the Saudi truce with the Houthis in 2022. They are seen as no match for the battle-hardened Houthis.

Experts believe the Houthis have the firepower and the motivation to fight. “During this period of stability the Houthis built up their capabilities. They appear to have fairly good weaponry, possibly provided by Iran,” said a senior diplomat.

Questions remain over whether the US would join the conflict and resume their bombing campaign against the Houthis. Experts have said that with the war with Iran not going well, President Trump may be reluctant to enter into a new theatre of conflict. However, if global oil prices rise further, the scenario could soon change.

The question remains about the Mecca Pact. Why have the other signatories, which include Pakistan and Turkey not come to the Kingdom's aid? Some experts believe that was not the pact’s focus. “The Mecca Pact is directed against Israel and is meant as a deterrent against Israel. The last thing member nations want to do is fight fellow Muslims. The Houthis are very popular amongst the Islamic world for their stand against Israel. They will not fight the Houthis,” said Ahmad.

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