Trump Is Considering a Plan to Strike Iran Before the Midterms
· The Atlantic
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After months of on-again, off-again fighting, the United States hasn’t struck Iran in several weeks. The stretch of relative tranquility is coinciding with the final phase of the midterm-election campaign, and the assumption has been that President Trump will want to keep it going through November 3 so as not to remind voters of an unpopular war that is dragging Republican candidates down nationwide.
But that may not be what happens. The White House has asked the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iranian targets that could be exercised ahead of the midterms, according to two administration officials. The planning underscores just how much the president wants to reduce gas prices and demonstrate progress in the conflict before the vote, administration officials told us.
The size and targets of the potential strikes—and whether the administration will ultimately proceed—are still being debated. The plans are being developed by U.S. Central Command, which is coordinating the war effort, a U.S. official told us. Even the plans’ advocates acknowledge that limited strikes would not, by themselves, bring Iran to the negotiating table, restore safe travel through the Strait of Hormuz, or lower gas prices before Election Day. But those in favor believe that further action after months of uneasy peace could allow Trump to demonstrate strength and potentially declare some sort of victory, giving Republicans much-needed momentum heading into the election. “It would make the president look like he got a win and that gas prices would start going down,” a Republican familiar with the deliberations told us after being granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. A limited operation could be followed up by more substantial military action after the midterms, when Trump has suggested that the conflict, which is now in its eighth month, could resume.
Any strike campaign would put the roughly 50,000 U.S. troops in the region, as well as Gulf allies, at risk of Iranian retaliation, and further deplete America’s munitions stockpiles. Even some of the president’s most ardent supporters want the U.S. to exit the war in order to halt the rise in inflation. An inconclusive limited strike is likely to have the opposite effect. Crude-oil prices have typically risen when the U.S. has resumed strikes after a pause, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“Military action has done nothing to drive down oil prices; in fact, it has done the opposite,” Will Walldorf, an international-affairs professor at Wake Forest University and a senior fellow at the think tank Defense Priorities, told us. “And if this is an attempt to rally the Republican vote, how does that make any sense given how unpopular this war is?”
The president has repeatedly discussed the possibility of resuming strikes after the election, threatening in a speech to the United Nations last month to “annihilate the Islamic Republic” if Iran did not reach a deal. In an interview with Time magazine released earlier this month, the president reiterated that post-election strikes were possible, saying “we’ve been stocking up for the last six months.” Last week, Trump said he believed the U.S. would win the war “right after the election,” though he added, “Maybe before the election.”
Republican candidates see the conflict, and the high gas prices it has caused, as a severe drag on their prospects for keeping a majority in the House and Senate. Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate candidate from Texas, has privately complained that the war has hurt his campaign, telling donors last month that rising gas and diesel prices caused by the conflict were “by far our biggest problem,” according to Axios.
[Read: The real reason Trump wants economic sanctions in Iran]
In recent weeks, the Pentagon has presented Trump with a series of options that would restart hostilities after the midterms, and now Centcom is compiling options for pre-midterm strikes. The post-election menu ranges from small strikes to massive attacks, including further blows to Iran’s energy industry. Even though the Trump administration remains bullish on the effectiveness of its economic pressure campaign, officials caution that Iran may wait several more months before entering serious negotiations. Trump has been publicly furious about the war’s persistence and is believed by those close to him to feel privately humiliated by his inability to bring the conflict to a successful conclusion. He has signaled to aides that he would be willing to strike Iran again, though his advisers believe that the right moment would be after the midterms rather than before. The war is deeply unpopular, and Republicans would not welcome the conflict’s return to the headlines, according to GOP strategists, particularly if more American lives are lost. A White House official stressed to us that Trump “has all options available at any time,” adding that “things will go one of two ways; the easy way or the hard way.” The official did not address our questions about the timing of possible strikes.
Oil prices surged after the Iran war began, climbing as high as nearly $118 a barrel in the spring. And although they briefly topped $100 a barrel last month, they have been hovering around $100 a barrel. Gas prices dipped slightly earlier this week amid reports of more tanker traffic transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that carried one-fifth of the world’s oil supply before Iran closed it early in the war. The White House and Republicans facing reelection harbor the hope that further incremental drops will signal lower prices ahead, giving the party some relief before the vote.
[Read: Trump is preparing for a long war]
But Iran has been persistent in its attacks. Earlier this week, it targeted a series of ships attempting to transit the strait, prompting some shipowners to reconsider use of the route. White House officials view those recent attacks as a deliberate swipe at the president, according to people familiar with the West Wing’s thinking. The administration has also said it would release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to increase supplies and keep gasoline prices from rising further. Americans are now paying an average of $4.37 a gallon for gas, according to AAA, compared with just below $3 before the U.S. and Israeli strike campaign began February 28.
The latest military deliberations come as the administration pursues two tracks at once: ongoing military and economic pressure, and indirect negotiations. Washington and Tehran continue to communicate through mediators, but significant differences remain over the terms and sequencing of a cease-fire, an end to the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the strait’s reopening. Iran may already be anticipating renewed U.S. strikes. Earlier this week, the U.S. removed B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford in Britain because U.S. intelligence indicated a possible Iranian-linked attack on the base. Iran has denied any involvement. “Iran is watching the calendar and knows the election is coming,” said one adviser who spoke with us. “And they want to stick it to the president.”
At the same time, the White House believes that Tehran is at its weakest point since the conflict began, two administration officials told us. The nation’s economy is teetering. Inflation is soaring. And Iran’s leadership seems in disarray. One close Trump adviser told us that the pattern has been that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps appears to be in charge one day, and then somewhat more moderate political officials the next. Overall, the hard-liners seem to have the upper hand, the officials told us, and they have shown little openness to a deal or even to softening their position. Yet some in Trump’s orbit believe that the moment is rapidly approaching when even the hard-liners may be forced to concede. A strike before the midterms could be seen as a not-so-gentle nudge in that direction—but it could also achieve the opposite, and put the war and its consequences front and center just as Americans cast their votes.