In the lab: A long look at center field
· Yahoo Sports
One of the biggest positions of emphasis for the Houston Astros has to be center field. One of the things I like to do is take a look at past results while also defining our terms. There are a number of metrics we will look at in this edition and some of you will be unfamiliar with some of them. Obviously, we start with the standard SLASH statistics (AVG/OBP/SLG) and go from there.
We can derive a few different numbers from those including isolated power and isolated patience. ISO power is calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage. Isolated patience is derived by subtracting batting average from on base percentage. We can then take those two and add them together for the basis of secondary average. Secondary average includes a base running element we will not include. However, we can take that product and add it to batting average and divide by two to get a number I will call real offensive value (ROV). If secondary average is everything a hitter does that does not include batting average then averaging that number with batting average should give us an overall look at the player’s contributions.
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Finally, we get bases per out. Those of you that have been frequent readers are familair with the stat, but we will reset in case anyone is new to this. You take total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and then divide that sum by the total number of outs a player accrues. Any time we take a look at a position this winter we should start by looking where the league is on these numbers and where the Astros were to get a frame of reference to go on.
SLASHISOpowISOpatROVBPOMLB AVG.244/.311/.400.156.074.237.673Astros CF.217/.283/.371.154.066.219.607Obviously, the Astros have their own secret sauce in how they look at these things. They are armed with servers and advanced software. I am armed with a ten year old Macbook. However, all of these numbers show the same thing to varying degrees. The Astros center fielders were decidedly below average when compared to the MLB universe. Keep in mind the MLB universe includes every positions and both part time players and regular players. So, finishing this far under average at a position like center field is not promising.
The goal should be to get back to the MLB average. Anything above and beyond that is gravy. Assuming this team keeps everyone we would surmise that Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, and Carlos Correa are all significantly above average. Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker, and Jose Altuve are closer to the league average. So, if the Astros can get average performance out of center field and left field then they will have an offense that is significantly above average overall.
Internal Candidates
There are three players that likely will challenge for the position as it stands now. We can presume that Jake Meyers is likely out since he has been DFAed. There is always the possibility that he could stick on a minor league contract and get an opportunity, but we will look at Brice Mathews, Lucas Spence, and Zach Cole. Since Mathews is the only one to get extensive major league time, we will look at their numbers from their collective minor league careers.
SLASHISOpowISOpatROVBPOBrice Matthews.248/.368/.439.191.120.280.949Lucas Spence.237/.358/.402.165.121.262.840Zach Cole.241/.347/.454.213.106.280.885Keep in mind we are talking about minor league numbers. These will include all the way down to A ball and through AAA. This is probably a Jimmy Price question. I do not have a minor league to major league decoder ring. All I know is that in all likelihood, most players will not produce at the big league level what they produced at the minor league level. Cole barely produced an .801 OPS during his minor league career. The other two did not get there. So, the likelihood of any of these guys being significantly above average is probably not all that good.
Keep in mind that the average OPS was .718, so I suppose there is hope that one of them could turn some magic beans into ML average performance. Obviously, Spence is the darling after his September performance, but he has the least impressive minor league numbers of the three. His K rate is the only one under 25 percent though, so he might have the upper hand coming into camp.
Free Agent Options
SLASHISOpowISOpatROVBPOLane Thomas.239/.310/.413.174.071.242.695Luis Robert.256/.312/.450.194.056.253.740Trent Grisham.217/.319/399.182.102.252.702Cedric Mullins.241/.312/.410.169.071.241.714Daulton Varsho.226/.293/.416.190.067.242.675All five of these players have one thing in common. They all have had one really magical season that has captivated scouts and fans alike. It is tempting to look at the back of their baseball card and dream about them repeating that one season. These numbers are their career numbers and probably closer to what fans can hope for. Ironically, Mullins and Varsho demonstrate a significant difference between ROV and BPO. BPO has a base running element and Mullins is obviously more of a threat there.
On the surface, all five look like they are better than the league average. That is of course assuming that each can reach their career averages in 2027. It also assumes they can stay healthy which we know is an issue in some cases. Finally, it does not even include their fielding numbers. So, there is a ton that goes into these decisions, but at first blush it would appear like any of them would be better than what the Astros threw out there last season for much of the season.
Trade Candidates
This is my least favorite portion of the analysis. I hate speculating on who might be available. So, we are combining Spotrac’s trade list and adding Jarren Durran who the Red Sox and Astros flirted around last season. Boston is one of the rumored destinations for Jeremy Pena, so there is always the possibility that Durran could be coming back. This does not include any AA or AAA level players that could be close to being ready that could be involved in a theoretical deal.
SLASHISOpowISOpatROVBPOJarren Duran.254/.314/.432.176.060.245.736Evan Carter.215/.307/.368.153.092.230.673Colton Cowser.219/.305/.394.175.086.240.677Nathan Lukes.267/.328/.399.133.061.231.626Duran is similar to the free agents above. He has one really good season to his name and that is buttressing his numbers some. Last season he produced a .207/.266/.361 slash line, but that includes a .210 ROV and .586 BPO, So, acquiring Duran is a bet on two things. First, that he will bounce back from that season and come closer to 2024 and 2025 when he played at an all-star level. Secondly, it is a bet that he can continue to be a plus defender. He can become a free agent in 2029 under current rules, so you would be getting two more years of club control.
The other three have varying levels of fielding ability, but none of them are likely to be even average performers offensively. Such a trade would have to be part of a larger package where you are settling for an overall average cnterr fielder and hopefully improving another slot at the same time. So, if you are trading for a big league center fielder then you are probably going to be disappointed. There are likely minor league options though.
Final Thoughts
It looks like the best bet will come in free agency. However, this is where things get dicey. The Astros are already up against the tax threshold as it stands. They likely have wants in the rotations, at left field, and maybe in the bullpen if they allow Bryan Abreu to walk. So, it is nice to say go out and pay for a guy, but that money might be spoken for.
Obviously, that can change if players like Christian Walker, Jeremy Pena, and/or Josh Hader are dealt. That presents opportunities to get a center fielder in exchange or at least clear out enough salary to allow them to sign one of the guys above. All five would present upgrades over the numbers put up last season. Some will be better than others but also more expensive than others. It’s part of the fun task that Randy Flores has in outfitting this team for next season.