Week 11 college football odds, storylines: Best bets for Texas-LSU and Saturday's other big games

· Yahoo Sports

No sporting entity consistently provides thrilling entertainment value each time the league plays more than college football, but, if we’re being honest, the mega-hyped Saturday of Week 10 was a disappointment. 

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We split our plays 3-3 (27-22-2 on the season), as somehow BYU didn’t cover, Missouri lost to Texas (and every possible high-leverage officiating decision), and the only underdog to cash tickets based on last Wednesday’s lines was Alabama. 

As expected, the College Football Playoff Committee reacted accordingly, as the winners went up and the losers went down. Meanwhile, the betting market didn’t need that announcement before making various changes in futures prices.

Notre Dame had the biggest high-leverage game of the week, as recent history shows that even the Irish can’t talk their way into the College Football Playoff without a quality win. Now they have it, and can freely exist as No. 2 on the oddsboard, because of how likely it is they make the CFP (-5000), even if beating the CFP No. 1 only moved the Irish up to No. 5 in the rankings. Meanwhile, predictably, the big win for CJ Carr’s team has catapulted him to the favorite (+180) for the Heisman Trophy.

Only Georgia has better odds of getting in (-10000), as the Bulldogs move to the top of the national title oddsboard at +240 (and -190 for the SEC) and are the new CFP No. 1.

Their most likely opponent in Atlanta?

The more things change, the more they stay the same, as Alabama — already up high in the CFP before beating LSU, validated that ranking, and the Crimson Tide are also -5000 to make the CFP. However, like the Irish, a surprise loss down the stretch could make them vulnerable.

Elsewhere in the SEC, Texas might have been ranked higher than expected, but they got the win at Missouri to move to -340. Tennessee beat Kentucky, moving to No. 8 in the CFP rankings. Of course, there’s no such thing as security in college football, as the Vols’ odds have improved to +120, still on the low-side of 50/50 to make it. 

Utah’s created space between themselves and BYU, and the Cougars — even with that win over Notre Dame — are actually underdogs to make the CFP (+225). However, if there was one takeaway from Tuesday night for a potential bet, it’s that BYU was only dropped to No. 10, seemingly giving it a chance to win-out and still make it in. In the same vein, Texas Tech, now looms with a path to the Big 12 title game, as the second choice to win the conference at +425, but do they even want the extra game?

The biggest upsets of Week 10 saw a pair of 14.5-point underdogs get it done, as Louisiana-Monroe shocked Arkansas State and Michigan State almost shutout Michigan, but it was three touchdown-‘dogs that shook things up in conference races and within the CFP picture.

While Saturday saw some separation in the SEC and Big 12, things got all shook up in the Big Ten, as Oregon reminded the nation that they’re not done yet. A comeback win at Ohio State was as impressive a stretch as we had all weekend (non-Georgia category), and a second-straight loss for the Buckeyes means they’re all but out. At +550, they’re the 22nd-most likely team to make the CFP (and 23rd in the CFP rankings).

In the Group of Six, we recommend you don’t play on Thursday, unless you want your season damaged. UTSA’s upset loss at Florida Atlantic takes them out of CFP contention, and makes the American race awfully cloudy. Of course, Saturday nights are dangerous too, as Texas State also won as a touchdown ‘dog at Oregon State to give the Bobcats a path to the Pac-12 title game and another shot at Boise State, after their thriller two Saturdays ago.

This is the space for the big games of the week. While we'll never get a true sample size in a sport that comes down to a bounce or two and the micro-assessment of replay reviews, the season's started to take shape. That said, there's enough market reaction (or lack thereof) to lead us to one side or another for the best games of Week 11.

Who wants to take their shot (again) at Miami?

The winner of this game will likely face the Hurricanes in the ACC title game, which means either a chance for Wake Forest to avenge its only loss, or SMU could deal a big blow to Miami’s CFP chances in back-to-back seasons. 

Last Friday, the Mustangs reminded everyone that they’re so much better at home, crushing Virginia Tech and covering a spread of less than a touchdown with ease. SMU’s market rating had dipped, making winning a ticket there easier, and even without adjusting the Mustangs back up, they should still be a field goal favorite here. 

Unless, of course, Wake Forest is really good. The Demon Deacons topped their 5.5-win total so long ago that we’ve already spent the winnings, but opening them a road favorite here implied they have a better power rating than Utah, BYU and South Carolina, and just shy of Missouri, USC and Tennessee. 

That’s a lot of heavy lifting for a semi-competitive loss to Miami, and a coin-flip win over Louisville. Since September, Wake has been crushing teams, but those four ACC wins are each over 2-4 teams (in-conference), and last week’s glorified scrimmage with Merrimack. 

The market has somewhat correct things, betting this down to a pick-em, acknowledging that a visit to Dallas should be a different story. 

Bet: SMU pick-em

No. 18 USC at No. 9 Indiana (-7.5, 50.5)

The co-collapses of the top-two preseason favorites in the Big Ten — Oregon and Ohio State — has opened the door for USC and Indiana (along with UCLA) to get back into a conference title game in the final iteration of such things this season. 

The Hoosiers came into the season getting some credit for last year’s dream national championship-winning season, and an estimated market rating of 90/100. Indiana’s clearly not that good, but the betting market hasn’t found the bottom for the Hoosiers, who’ve covered one game all season. 

USC is hard to trust any time they leave the West Coast, but that seems built into the line here, as the Trojans are well under their preseason market rating, despite having beaten Ohio State, while also coming out of their bye. 

Indiana’s QB situation is very shaky, and while a good defense has stopped USC’s strong offense anytime it’s been on the road, we have the line projected under a touchdown, so take the points and dare the Hoosiers to score enough to cover.

Bet: USC +7.5

No. 2 Utah (-2.5, 54.5) at No. 23 Arizona

Are we looking at a letdown spot for Utah? They were supposed to let down after beating Houston in the final minutes of Week 8, only to truck Cincinnati in Week 9. But winning the Holy War is on a different level. 

This game should be a pick-em, but there’s always going to be market interest in the undefeated team, and if it were some lock that the Utes keep it going, then the line would be a lot higher. By comparison, using the current Utah market rating, an immediate rematch with BYU would have that game lined at -7. While Utah won that game by eight, it took all four of Bear Bachmeier’s interceptions to create something other than a toss-up game late. 

Arizona escaped TCU last Friday, potentially lowering the perception of the Wildcats. Arizona has shown it can hang with other Big 12 powers on the road, losing close at BYU and Texas Tech.

With Arizona finally getting one of the better teams at home, look for Noah Fefita to move the ball as well as BYU but with fewer turnovers, and a strong Arizona defense to bring Utah back to earth after a major high, further complicating things in the Big 12 with a smaller upset than what many will think it is.

Bet: Arizona +2.5

No. 6 Texas at No. 21 LSU (-4.5, 46.5)

Did LSU’s season go down the tank with the loss to Alabama? Or does the SEC schedule allow for enough chances for quality wins that Lane Kiffin’s final argument hasn’t been made just yet? 

The Tigers did everything right against the Crimson Tide, except for the “running the ball into the end zone” part of the program. LSU outgained Alabama 457-285 (27-14 in first downs), but two traditional turnovers, and an 0-for-4 on fourth down undermined the whole operation. 

Instead, the Tigers’ power rating in the betting market comes down, creating value on the home side this week, getting one of their precious night games in Baton Rouge. 

The Longhorns escaped Missouri with a win that may have secured their place in the playoff. But catching a series of breaks to keep them in it, while great for their chances last week, won’t help them this week in a far tougher environment against a team combining desperation and capability, in a game lined shorter with a team not as good as the one they faced last week.

Bet: LSU -4.5

North Texas (-2.5, 76.5) at UTSA 

This game could be included just on the total alone, but the winner (likely) goes to the American Championship, and that’s good enough to be our “G6” game of the week. 

A week ago, this game’s also probably a pick-em, but the Roadrunners went on the road and got run over by FAU. 

It’s weird to think of the following as a positive, but losing on the road has been somewhat par for the course during the two-and-a-half seasons Owen McCown has been at the helm for Jeff Traylor’s defense-optional teams.

  • 2024: 0-6 on the road, 6-0 at home

  • 2025: 2-4 on the road, 4-2 at home

This season, the Roadrunners have won all four games at home, and even mixed in some decent road wins as a loss at Texas was their only previous defeat this season. Essentially, if UTSA is exactly what we thought it would be then their estimated market rating of 50/100 — an average team nationally — should be maintained. Unlike the big shift in perception for North Texas.

The Mean Green had a complete revamp this season, with most of their core off to Oklahoma State. Everyone was wrong, as a season win total set at 5.5 (creating an estimated market rating at THE WINDOW of 32/100) has been cleared with ease, and their market rating is up to 55, so, bettors have figured out they’re pretty good. 

For a 2.5-point spread, the Mean Green would need to be rated up within shouting distance of Oklahoma State (65), or the Roadrunners have to be downgraded below the expectations that they have met, regardless of last week’s result.

In what could easily come down to a 2-point conversion after the teams trade 7+ touchdowns, let’s take a couple points and buckle up for what should be a wild ride late into Saturday night. 

Bet: UTSA +2.5

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

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