Forward or Goalie – Jarmo’s Next Priority in the NHL Offseason
· Yahoo Sports
With free agency in full swing and Jarmo Kekäläinen relatively quiet aside from the Bowen Byram trade, the question becomes: what should the Buffalo Sabres prioritize next?
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This offseason, the Sabres significantly strengthened their blue line by adding Olen Zellweger, Wyatt Crevier, and Dennis Gilbert. Those additions provide valuable depth, push Conor Timmins further down the lineup, and inject some much-needed youth into the defensive corps following the departure of Bowen Byram. While few players can truly replace what Byram brought, Mattias Samuelsson’s strong offensive campaign has eased many concerns about the team’s ability to generate offense from the back end.
The bigger question now lies up front and in goal.
Replacing Alex Tuch’s Production
With Alex Tuch gone and uncertainty surrounding the goaltending situation, Buffalo enters its first offseason after ending a 14-year playoff drought with several important questions to answer.
Up front, Peyton Krebs’ future remains uncertain, and his value is primarily as a defensive forward. That raises the question: can a full season from Noah Östlund, Konsta Helenius, and Jiří Kulich (assuming he’s healthy) replace Tuch’s production?
The short answer is probably not—at least not individually.
One thing that may have gone unnoticed is that Östlund already played 60 NHL games last season, an impressive workload for a second-year player. With the NHL moving to an 84-game schedule next season, his 27 points over 60 games would project to roughly 38 points. While that’s encouraging, asking a young player to replace everything Tuch brought offensively is probably unrealistic. Östlund will undoubtedly make an impact, but he shouldn’t be expected to carry that burden alone.
Helenius is perhaps the biggest wildcard. Buffalo limited him to nine NHL games to avoid burning the first year of his entry-level contract, but in hindsight, one could argue he had earned a longer look after producing at a similar pace to Östlund. Although all four of his career points came in Games 2 and 3 of his NHL career, his two playoff goals against Montreal were enormous, and his overall presence gave Buffalo an added dimension.
Then there’s Kulich. While he hasn’t been skating recently, assuming he’s healthy next season, it’s reasonable to expect him to rebound after a somewhat rusty start and challenge the 20-25 goal mark.
Tuch scored 33 goals last season. If Kulich contributes around 20 goals, while both Östlund and Helenius approach the 40-point mark with roughly 10 goals apiece, Buffalo may be able to replace Tuch’s offensive production by committee rather than relying on one player to do it all.
The Josh Norris Factor
Of course, that projection assumes Josh Norris remains healthy and produces at the same level he did last season.
That’s far from guaranteed.
Norris has unfortunately built a reputation for spending significant time on injured reserve, and Buffalo will need him in the lineup if they’re going to remain a legitimate playoff team.
There have also been continued rumors connecting Robert Thomas to Buffalo. Acquiring him, however, would likely require a substantial package. Unless the Sabres are willing to move one of their young defensemen—perhaps Radim Mrtka—along with multiple prospects or even Jack Quinn, it’s difficult to see St. Louis agreeing to a deal.
The previous discussions surrounding Colton Parayko suggested the Blues place an extremely high value on their core players, and Thomas also holds a no-trade clause. That said, perhaps Buffalo’s playoff breakthrough this spring has made the organization a more attractive destination than it was a year ago.
Is Goaltending the Bigger Concern?
While replacing Tuch’s offense is important, I believe the more pressing issue is in goal.
At the beginning of last season, Alex Lyon appeared to be the favorite to start in the playoffs before Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen gradually took over the crease. By playoff time, however, it largely came down to whichever goalie was hotter.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, Luukkonen struggled. He was pulled twice during the postseason, compared to just once for Lyon. While Lyon posted a respectable .907 save percentage during the regular season, Luukkonen finished at .876—a number that’s simply not sustainable for a playoff contender.
As someone who watched Luukkonen develop during his OHL days in Sudbury, it’s difficult to say, but Buffalo needs him to bounce back in a major way.
Colten Ellis remains an intriguing prospect with room to grow, but I don’t believe a three-goalie rotation is the right approach. Ideally, Ellis should return to Rochester as the Americans’ starter while serving as the organization’s primary call-up when injuries occur.
Health will also be critical. Throughout last season there were stretches where injuries forced Buffalo’s remaining goaltenders into heavier workloads than intended. A more stable tandem would go a long way toward avoiding those situations.
My Biggest Priority
After weighing both needs, I believe the Sabres’ biggest priority should be upgrading in goal.
Connor Hellebuyck has been mentioned as a potential target, but the cost would almost certainly be enormous. Beyond the assets required to acquire him, his $8.5 million cap hit would leave Buffalo with virtually no financial flexibility, making it difficult to address any additional needs up front.
A more realistic option could be Charlie Lindgren. At a $3.5 million cap hit, he’d provide a proven veteran presence without completely eliminating Buffalo’s cap flexibility. Perhaps a package centered around Colten Ellis and a late-round draft pick would interest Washington, giving them another young goaltender to develop alongside Brock University alumnus Logan Thompson.
Final Thoughts
As the Sabres continue evaluating their goaltending options and the #Sabrehood waits to see whether the Patrick Kane rumors become reality, Jarmo Kekäläinen finds himself in a fascinating position.
Buffalo has already taken meaningful steps to improve its defense, and its young forwards should collectively help replace some of Alex Tuch’s production. But if the Sabres want last season’s playoff appearance to become the beginning of sustained success rather than a one-year breakthrough, stabilizing the crease should be the organization’s next priority.