3 bold predictions for Astros vs. Rangers AL West race

September 23, 2026 · Yahoo Sports

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The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers enter the final five games tied atop the American League West at 78-79. The Astros reached that point with a win Tuesday, while the Rangers lost. Neither club has secured a postseason berth. The loser of the AL West race may need help to reach October through the AL Wild Card.

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The standings show a tie, but the teams do not start on equal footing. The Astros won nine of their 13 meetings with the Rangers and own the head-to-head tiebreaker. If they finish with matching records, the Astros take the division. The Rangers must finish at least one game ahead. Every result now affects the division and Wild Card races.

The schedule gives both clubs an opening. The Astros visit the Seattle Mariners once more, then play four road games against the Athletics. The Rangers host the New York Mets twice before facing the Minnesota Twins three times away from home. Here are three predictions for the finish.

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The Astros will win four of their last five games

Predicting a 4-1 finish for the Astros requires looking beyond their recent form. Houston went 3-7 in their last 10 games and lost their AL West lead before Tuesday. A single win over Seattle did not fix those problems, especially for an offense that has struggled to give its pitchers consistent support.

Still, the remaining opponents make a rebound credible. The Mariners enter Wednesday at 73-84, and the Athletics stand at 62-95. The Astros own a 39-37 road record, so spending the final week away from home does not automatically make their path harder. Four games against the Athletics give the Astros room to recover even if they drop Wednesday’s finale in Seattle.

I expect the Astros to win three of four against the Athletics and beat the Mariners once more. That produces an 82-80 finish. It would demand sharper at-bats than Houston showed during its 3-7 slide, particularly when games tighten in late innings.

The Rangers will match Houston’s finish and still lose the West

The Rangers have the stronger recent form at 6-4 over their last 10 games. They also get two more games at home, where they have gone 44-35. Winning both against the Mets would put them in a strong position before the final trip to Minnesota.

The challenge comes after they leave Arlington. The Rangers have gone 34-44 on the road, and three of their five remaining games take place at the Twins’ ballpark. That split should matter more than the Minnesota’s losing record. Texas needs two wins in the series with the Twins. Those wins must come where the Rangers have struggled most, with the division undecided.

Josh Jung and Nathan Eovaldi returned from the injured list this month, giving the club more options for the stretch run. Corey Seager remains central to the Rangers’ offense. They have enough talent to win two of three in Minnesota, but their away record makes a sweep harder to predict.

My call is two wins over the Mets and two over the Twins. Texas finishes 82-80, exactly where I expect the Astros to land. Houston’s 9-4 season-series advantage would decide the division. A four-win closing stretch would feel strong for the Rangers, yet it would not be enough.

The Rangers will miss the playoffs despite finishing above .500

Losing the AL West would leave Texas chasing the final Wild Card rather than celebrating its 82nd win. Entering Wednesday, the Chicago White Sox held that spot at 81-76. The Cleveland Guardians led Chicago by one game in the AL Central at 82-75. The other two Wild Card spots already look secure. The division’s runner-up could therefore face a difficult target.

For the Rangers, the problem is time. Even four wins in five games would produce only 82 victories. Chicago needs two wins in its final five to reach 83, while Cleveland needs just one. Both clubs would have to stumble for an 82-win Texas team to remain in the Wild Card picture.

This is the consequence that makes the tiebreaker so important. Houston can match Texas across the final five games and still take the AL West. The Rangers can play well, finish above .500 and have no postseason place to show for it.

I predict both rivals close 4-1, finish 82-80 and force the standings tiebreaker. The Astros take the division on their head-to-head record. The Rangers’ season ends because the Wild Card chase demands more wins than a late surge can supply.

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