‘Arch has fallen’: NFL scouts pick new favorite to be first QB taken in 2027 draft
· Yahoo Sports
Heading into the 2026 college football season, the 2027 NFL draft was expected to feature one of the best quarterback classes in years, with Texas’ Arch Manning among the biggest names. Halfway through the season, things look very different.
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A new poll of NFL scouts and executives shows a dramatic shift in who they expect to be the first quarterback taken next spring. Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker, who didn’t receive a single vote before the season, is now the overwhelming favorite, while Manning got shut out entirely.
A Rough Year for Top QBs
The quarterback class was billed as one of the deepest in recent memory before the season. But several of the top prospects, including Manning, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, and LSU’s Sam Leavitt, have struggled to prove themselves.
Manning has had a particularly difficult season with accuracy and turnover issues. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian even issued a warning about potentially making a change at quarterback.
NFL executives have also reportedly doubted that Manning will even enter the 2027 draft, and some analysts have floated the possibility of a transfer.
Meanwhile, Oregon’s Dante Moore, who led the preseason poll, suffered a concussion on an illegal hit against USC on Sept. 26 that will keep him out for the rest of the season.
‘The Only Real Choice’
In a midseason poll of 25 NFL scouts and executives, 17 voted for Mestemaker as the first quarterback who will be drafted in 2027, according to ESPN’s Pete Thamel. That’s the most votes a quarterback has received in the three years that ESPN has conducted the poll.
“Mestemaker seems like the only real choice at this point,” one scout said.
Notre Dame’s CJ Carr finished second with four votes, followed by Miami’s Darian Mensah with three and Moore with one. Back in August, Moore led with 14 votes, followed by Manning with seven, Sellers with two, and Leavitt and Carr with one each.
Manning, Sellers, and Leavitt didn’t receive a single vote this time around.
“Before the season, this class was going to rival 1983,” a scout said, referencing the famed draft class that had five quarterbacks go in the first round. “But there’s been a lot of moving parts and Arch has fallen. It’ll be interesting to see who resurfaces.”
Mestemaker’s Rise
Mestemaker’s rise is a remarkable story. He didn’t start for his high school varsity team and began his college career as a walk-on at North Texas before landing at Oklahoma State.
The turning point came on Sept. 12, when Mestemaker threw for 317 yards and two touchdowns in a 39-31 upset win over Oregon as a nearly three-touchdown underdog. He also ran for a 75-yard touchdown and outplayed Moore.
This season, Mestemaker has thrown for 2,326 yards with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions while also rushing for two scores. At 6-foot-4 and 211 pounds, he also has the size that NFL teams look for.
“The size, the body type and arm strength are the things that stood out to me right away,” a veteran scout said. “He’s got arm talent, power and accuracy.”
As for Manning, scouts haven’t written him off completely. Multiple scouts said that he could still work his way into the first round because of his tools, pedigree, and potential, but for now, he’s got a lot of ground to make up.
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